A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
